Who Would Win a US-China Trade War? | China Uncensored

On this episode of China Uncensored, everybody’s a winner! Wait, what’s that, Shelley? Welcome to China Uncensored, I’m your host, Chris Chappell. Trade Wars. That’s more than just George Lucas’s unproduced
spin-off of the Star Wars prequels. According to the leaked script, it follows Jar Jar Binks as he infiltrates
the Trade Federation. Strange that it never got made. Anyway, trade wars. That’s what some experts are afraid might
happen if President Trump carries out his promise
to impose a tariff, or tax, on goods made in China. He blames China’s unfair trade practices for the loss of American manufacturing jobs. Here today to talk about this issue is the only person at China Uncensored with an economics degree from Trump’s own
alma mater, University of Pennsylvania, Shelley Zhang. Thanks, Chris. How likely is it that Trump is going to impose
tariffs on China? Oh, he’s definitely going to do it. Really? 100 percent. How can you be so sure? I’m not sure about anything anymore. Ok, yes President Trump can be a smidge unpredictable. But railing against unfair trade practices is kind of his jam. In 1987, he took out this full-page ad in the New York
Times. In it, he criticized Japan for taking advantage of
the US with its weak yen and trade surpluses, and suggested that we “tax” Japan and other
countries for the services the US provides, like keeping the world safe. Sound familiar? I guess China is the new Japan? Yes. Just a quick find and replace, and he can still use the same speech 30 years later. Ok, so when President Trump imposes tariffs on
China, what effect will that have? Will that start a trade war? That I don’t know. It really depends on how high the tariff is, and how broadly it’s applied. Trump has talked about wanting to impose a
45% tariff on all Chinese-made goods. Something that big would probably trigger
China to impose its own tariffs on American goods
in retaliation. That could lead to a trade war. Of course, you could argue that China already started the trade war years ago. You know, when it did things like artificially lowering the price of their products through export subsidies, stealing intellectual property, and setting up ways to keep US companies from competing in China. That’s definitely how the Trump administration sees it. Well, more important than who starts it, is
who finishes it. Who wins the US-China trade war? Experts are divided, Chris. Some say it will hurt America. Others say China will lose. Meanwhile, Chinese state-run media say that China would totally not get hurt
by a trade war. And, like, it’s not going to happen. Plus why would the US want a stupid trade
war anyway? Which means state-run media also think China
will lose. So what you’re saying is, America wins. Well, it’s complicated. Americans will lose in that tariffs mean companies will raise prices on Made in China
stuff. So we’ll have to pay higher prices on most
stuff at Wal-Mart, as well as things like appliances and consumer
electronics. But will tariffs bring American jobs back? They might bring some jobs back. But not necessarily the same ones that left. Jobs might require higher technical skills,
for example. Low-skill manufacturing jobs probably aren’t going to come back. Lots of those jobs have been replaced by technology. And US companies can just move to other Third
World countries with cheap labor. Like the Donald J Trump Signature Collection has already started moving from China to other
countries. Yes. Although in a recent speech, Trump said he will incentivize US companies
with tax breaks and other things to come back to the US. Tariffs could also create different jobs. For example, in industries where China has
a virtual monopoly, like on rare earth minerals, which are needed to make electronics. Tariffs could cause a huge shortage in the
short term, but in the long term, it could encourage American companies to start mining rare earth minerals. What about China? China has more to lose because they sell us more stuff than we sell them. And in a trade war, generally the country with the trade surplus gets hit the hardest. China could lose millions of export and manufacturing
jobs. And at a time when economic growth is slowing, that could cause not only huge problems with
their economy, but it could lead to political instability
as well. After all, one of the big reasons people put up with the Communist Party is economic growth. Very true. And if China loses more, does that mean America wins? It’s not so cut and dried. There are other things that would probably
happen. Like the cheap manufacturing that’s currently
in China would move even faster to places like Southeast
Asia. And it might create a gray market where goods are manufactured in China but shipped to another country, where they are officially exported to the
US to avoid the tariffs. Are you really saying that people will find
loopholes to avoid taxes? Anyway, I guess we’ll have to wait and see
what happens. Well, we actually have kind of a test case. What I like to call the Rubber Chicken Skirmish
of 2009. That’s when President Obama set a tariff of 35% on Chinese tires. It did manage to save 1,200 US tire jobs and increased US tire production. However, tires also got way more expensive for US consumers. And China raised retaliatory tariffs on chicken
parts from the US, which cost chicken producers about 1 billion
dollars. I’m glad that wasn’t actually about rubber
chickens. I was starting to worry about you. Would it help if I told you I didn’t sleep
last night? No? Ok, one thing to note here Chris is that I have been talking about this tariff
in generalities, since Trump hasn’t talked yet about the specifics of his plan. However, economist Peter Navarro, who’s the new director of Trump’s National
Trade Council, has defended the tariff. He says that it would be applied not on everything, but with a “flexible case-by-case approach.” And that tariffs would be used strategically to negotiate with China. Remember, the Chinese regime is scared to lose manufacturing
jobs— because it could affect China’s political
stability. That means the threat of a trade war could be a powerful bargaining chip for the
US. So, if these tariffs are targeted to give
the US greater political leverage over China and expose the ways the Communist Party has gamed the system, they could maybe get the Party to change some of their trade practices. And that would make the tariffs successful, even if they don’t bring back millions of
manufacturing jobs. So what you’re saying is, America wins. Trade isn’t exactly a zero sum game, Chris,
and… Ok, you know what, yes, America wins. Thanks, Shelley. That’s what I like to hear. Go get some sleep. And thank you for watching this episode of
China Uncensored. What do you think of the possible US-China
trade war? Leave your comments below. Once again, I’m your host, Chris Chappell. See you next time.

100 thoughts on “Who Would Win a US-China Trade War? | China Uncensored

  1. Dump only is only ok with himself and family of grifters taking advantage of the U.S.

  2. Nixon was an ass for opening up China! I wish I could go back in time and prevent that from happening!

  3. now l know after 8year of trump l wiill vote some one know about ecconomy and smart

  4. Stupid. Any 3rd grader will know, in a war, third party wins. Never heard of Thucydides Trap?

  5. a year old video and look what's happening now..a "trade war" no one wins in a trade war or any other war, in the general population that is..

  6. I can't tell if this is The Onion Lite or real…
    Is that Kim Jong Un's sister?

  7. In short term maybe, dun forget China is communism & most of the rich businessman will be summoned to serve the nation, America is powerful but also a free country, definitely will be a loser at the end. Trump think he can win but he forgot China is not Japan.

  8. a stupid guy thats always speaking shit about another country..you have been saying Alot of shit but as i webt there myself and saw the country and im currently moving there i can say “” fucking lies mate”” every country has its pros and cons..at least there i dont have to deal with freaking mentals killing me children on schools..peace!

  9. In my personal opinion, the USA can be just as protectionist as the Chinese are accused of.

  10. He did it, and he's winning. China will crumble without Americans. What's that Shelly, you say it's a Win/Win. Haha

  11. For a long time, the dumb Americans tolerated low prices for low quality craps Made in China, but they won't pay more for the same low quality craps. I'll tell you who will win, America. We'll start making our own shits again. Remember, all that required for Evil to triumph is for good men to keep buying "Made in China." #GermanDeathCamps

  12. nice to see someone is doing something about this unfair trade,,, it has been going on for a longgggggggggggg time.

  13. The hidden message behind every Chian Uncensored episode: China bad, America good, China lose, America win, China eat shit, America keep ruling the world. Just stop with the "pro chinese people anti ccp" bs and go with the route that you are already taking.

  14. LOL looks like Xi is squeezing trump's ballz hard with the latest round of tariffs, and is working.

    ""China has received the information that the US side wish to come in Beijing in order to conduct economic and trade consultations. China welcomes this" — 4/22/2018

    LOL, looks like trump is about to beg the high iq Chinese for mercy. Look here, yanks are stronk. LMFAO.

  15. America 'keeps the world safe'?
    And should be paid for it? …Keeps the world *safe*?
    I cant even begin to…

  16. Watching this in 2018 and Shelly is 100% right on her prediction. Trump taxed China.

  17. We might not win u all braging about how good usa army is but we copyed stleath from ninjas Japan copy are bomb designs an functions from China army u never doubt any enemy but let's all face truth America gone soft are days counting out on last number with Trump around he's even. Made British mad an Chinese and Korean an Japanese an hatians an Africans an Mexicans an Columbia an purto Rico an rio dejainero an Brazil all pissed off with his insults an how he talks to them I say Trump should be impeached for all other countries join in on world war 3 on America Trump pushing buttons with no planning where all fucked

  18. Xi Jingping: Trump is just a businessman and he just wants money ! US will lose the future.

  19. I'm sorry for you got mediamonisus Shelley.. My doc told me to lay off the fake news and biased reporting and I'm happy to say I've lost 10 lbs & my hair stopped falling out.

  20. Start a trade war with China. Watch China implode. China can only survive with growth.
    Stops it;s growth and watch it crumble.
    Screwing Western nations is in the Chinese DNA

  21. Friends really think about this for a moment, and let it sink in. You will see why there are so many bankruptcies around the world. Not just in the U.S. We call them false prophets.

    What is really funny about some of these advisers is, they could not guide the U.S. economy's direction accurately, to avoid the last meltdown with their economic figures. Now they want to come up with these new figures globally. LOL !! The bible by the way warns us about these types of individuals.

    Why ? Because what is not included in these figures are developments in new technologies or products. Here's an example. When the horse and buggy was used during the end of their era. These same type of individuals could not forecast how many cars were going to be built in the U.S.. The steel industry boomed after this because it made more chassis than the horse and buggy. Because it really didn't have a history. But I am sure those economists of the day were quite surprised, at all the new jobs that were created because of it ! If you don't believe this, how old and big is Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Twitter, Skype, Google, Instagram, and the list goes on ! Here's a little insight. If you are a tick on a horse. You cannot see how big that horse really is until you begin the journey, or get it right from the horse's mouth. He's called the source ! Not the horse, God !

  22. Fuck you americas. Asia will win. India will win. 21st century will be Asia's century

  23. The true answer in a trade war is not who wins it’s who hurts more both Nations become losers both Nations will suffer economically and both will lose jobs

    This is not the first time the US started trade wars and ended up in a massive depression

  24. Well I guess China can dump the US bonds and treasury notes to support its economy and that will kill US jobs

  25. The USA is not paying China for its goods with cash – it pays in promises to pay. If the USA dose not take Chiness goods then China will give credit and sell goods to Russia and they become the big winners in this war. In fact Russian/China trade increased as a result of Trumps poor decisions.

  26. China easily. The USA only accounts for 12% of Chinese exports. The USA cant destroy any Chinese industries. China can destroy many US industries. China wins as there is no real way of stopping US Companies investing elsewhere or diverting exports through Chinese foreign subsidiaries. The EU is the main offender and needs a good boot up the arse. It is the number one worst free trader in the world. The USA comes in as the second worst free trader. China is well down the list. Australian.

  27. Shelley is really smart. But her prediction about China loose might be wrong. We'll see as the trade war folds out. Most likely, both Chinese and Americans suffer while Trump wins to have a second term. Because he is working so hard to sell the China enemy concept and people support him even if they suffer!

  28. a trade war is like a siege protectionism self imposed rather than forced. it boils down to who is better prepared so get your bugout kit ready🤫

  29. Isn't graphene just a drop in replacement for rare earth mineral use?

  30. Just cut all trade with China and buy buy Chinese economy.

  31. Not just the US, I think everyone wins… except the CCP and probably the North Korean regime.

  32. 중국은 지극히 조심해야 한다. 과거 미국은 소련 일본 등 위협이 될만한 국가들을 꺾는데 다 성공했다. 기축통화국가라는 막강한 파워가 있기 때문에 특히 조심해야 한다. 개인적으로 중국이 지지 말았으면 하는 바램이지만.. 아무튼 중국 관료들은 현명하게 과거 금융의 역사로부터 배우고 대처해가기 바란다.

  33. just 45% tariff he should put 100% tariff or out right ban it it will cripple china's business centered economy

  34. This is one of my favorite TV replacement channel as unlike the traditional TV news this has memes

  35. God this episode oozes sexual tension. Of course Shelly never got any sleep…

  36. Allowing our manufacturing jobs to go overseas is just a worthless form of instant gratification that comes back to bite you later. You save a few nickels now, but a few years down the line you get to deal with mass unemployment, low quality goods, and ungrateful foreign countries that now have all your money.

  37. Will most USA Product are making in china if they trade stop many chinese would lose Jon and in American more Job opening up but more payment for the worker

  38. Holly mole. China has 388 million more people then the whole American continent. From Greenland to the Patagonia.

  39. if american companies set up in countries other than china. it just means that the US will actually increase their influence in other ASEAN countries , in some countries like the Philippines, it can help counter the prochinese stnce of our president dugyuterte and also help in satisfying the filipino taste for american products

  40. You should read "The Accidental Superpower","The Absent Superpower" and "Disunited Nations" by Peter Zeihan.

  41. Don't worry China, if your economy and society collapses. America will save your people from famine again like they did in the 19th century. By hiring coolies to build the great railways across the USA.

    This time you will build the great Trump boarder wall, something you Chinamen are so good at.

  42. Why didn’t Shelly sleep last night?
    Did Chris keep her up?
    Chris is naughty

  43. I think the U.S.- China Trade War is Beautiful and should go on indefinitely…
    …next up…"Walmart Crashes, film at 11" ;>)

  44. Birth of USSR……1919
    End of USSR. …….9191
    70 years
    Birth of CCP. …….1949
    End of CCP …………2019 (before end of December )
    70 years ..

  45. China is too weak way way to freaking weak that china had to appear strong when china is weak. Sun Tsu theory can't save china this time.

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